On Wednesday I popped along to a chilly Old Granada Studios, in Manchester, to hear Deloitte’s TMT Predictions report for 2017.
At the start of the year all the so-called experts nail their colours to the mast on where they think technology is going.
Last week the CES conference jamboree pitched up in Las Vegas to celebrate its 50th anniversary and all the talk was around artificial intelligence (AI), digital assistants, self-driving cars and smart home tech.
Next week GP Bullhound will formally discuss their technology predictions for 2017, which include the next generation of AI, the growth of VR, the transformation of social media and the rise of E-sports, which is predicted to become a billion-dollar industry in 2017.
So what did I learn from Deloitte’s TMT Predictions? The first is that Paul Lee, a partner of TMT for the firm, is a very good speaker.
I despair of tech experts who assume everyone else is a geek and talks in a language that goes over the head of ‘normal’ folk. Thankfully that’s not an accusation you could fire at Mr Lee.
Key findings include:
- One in 20 uses of digital navigation will be indoors this year;
- There will be more than 10 million cyber attacks in 2017;
- There will be more than 10 trillion uses of fingerprint scanners this year;
- Sales of tablets will fall 10 per cent to less than 165 million units;
- TV advertising revenue will remain resilient; and
- 5G networks will grow.
It’s hard to disagree with most of what they said, but I was more interested in a conversation I had with Mr Lee afterwards. He spends his life immersed in technology because it’s his job to predict what’s going to happen next.
Despite the rise of social media platforms like Facebook I was fascinated by his take on TV usage. He says 95 per cent of us will watch TV at some stage every week and our average daily usage is three-and-a-half hours.
That surprised me because I have two teenage daughters and they stream virtually everything they watch but there’s still a place for traditional platforms like TV. It the reason why TV advertising is holding up.
With this in mind I was shocked by Deloitte’s prediction that vinyl sales will generate $1bn globally for the first time this century. What?
Mr Lee revealed his first vinyl record was Queen’s Greatest Hits and I revealed mine was the Shakin‘ Stevens classic Green Door. It’s amazing how discussing vinyl makes you sentimental.
The point I’m making is that as we predict where technology is going we shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bath water. There’s still a place for ‘old stuff’ like the TV and vinyl records.
Even my jeans, which are full of holes, are suddenly fashionable again. Thank goodness I kept them!