Investment Minister Lord Jason Stockwood says the UK needs to believe in itself more.
Lord Stockwood stepped down from his day-to-day involvement as co-owner and vice-chair at Grimsby Town FC in September after succeeding Poppy Gustafsson as UK Investment Minister.
He was given a peerage, joining the House of Lords, in order to take up the role and is also an experienced leader in technology businesses, holding senior roles at lastminute.com, match.com, Skyscanner, Travelocity, and Simply Business.
Reflecting on his first few months in the role, the 55-year-old said Britain has spent much of the last decade talking itself down – and it needs to stop.
Poppy Gustafsson replaced as Investment Minister by Grimsby Town owner
“The dominant story is one of decline: weak growth, stagnant productivity, brittle public services and a politics that seems permanently stuck,” he wrote.
“Some of that story is deserved. But not all of it. And when pessimism hardens into orthodoxy, it starts to shape outcomes.
“That is one of the central arguments in ‘Fixing the holes in economics: better theories for better growth’, a recent paper by David Halpern, which reminds us that economies do not move on fundamentals alone.
“Sentiment, trust and momentum matter. Markets respond not just to policy, but to how credible and confident the story around that policy feels.
“This matters for the UK because, relative to other advanced economies, the fundamentals are stronger than the mood music suggests.”
Living standards
Lord Stockwood said real wages in the UK have risen by up to 3 per cent over the past year.
“That may not yet feel transformative for many households, especially after such a prolonged squeeze, but it matters in direction if not in drama,” he said.
“Set alongside falling inflation, easing energy prices and the prospect of lower mortgage rates, it marks the beginning of a shift.
“Britain is ahead of several comparable economies where incomes remain flat. This is not an abstract statistic. Politics follows pay packets.
“When people stop feeling poorer year-on-year, behaviour begins to change. Confidence returns slowly, but it does return.”
The UK Investment Minister said Britain’s thriving service economy is often ‘misunderstood’.
“The UK is the world’s second largest exporter of services, selling more than £450bn a year across finance, professional services, technology, culture and education,” he said.
“In a world driven increasingly by ideas, data and trust rather than containers and steel, this is a strategic advantage, not a weakness.”
Inflation is falling
Lord Stockwood said inflation was tracking to two to three per cent in the next 12 months.
He said: “That matters because it restores room for manoeuvre and it allows interest rates to fall sooner, eases pressure on households and businesses, and helps move politics out of permanent crisis mode.
“Compared with economies where inflation remains stubbornly high, Britain now has options again.”
He said London remains the world’s leading international financial centre, handling over 40 per cent of global foreign exchange trading.
“Trust in institutions is not a nice-to-have; it shapes expectations and behaviour long before policy changes feed through,” he said.
Lord Stockwood said countries such as Japan, South Korea and parts of southern Europe were already seeing their working age populations shrink.
“The UK is not,” he said. “That does not guarantee prosperity, but it reduces one of the most powerful structural drags on growth that others now face.
“None of this is an argument for complacency. Britain still needs reform, investment and a clearer long-term strategy. But pessimism is not realism. It is a position, and often a lazy one.
“The lesson from behavioural economics, as Halpern argues, is that narratives shape decisions.
“Businesses delay investment when they fear the future. Households hold back spending when they believe decline is inevitable.
“Governments that talk their own economies down should not be surprised when confidence evaporates.
“Momentum is not magic. But it is real. And relative to other markets, Britain has more of it than we currently allow ourselves to believe.”