Artificial intelligence is simply everywhere. I very much doubt this is the first thing about AI you have read today!
To recap, whilst the field of artificial intelligence has a rich history spanning many decades – perhaps centuries if not for the untimely death of Lady Lovelace – the major reason ‘AI is everywhere’ right now is because of generative AI. This is a new, more general, type of artificial intelligence which is highly accessible and relatively cheap. Probably the most well-known generative AI tool is Chat GPT, which launched in November 2022.
The growth of generative AI
ChatGPT is an AI tool, which – in response to an instruction or prompt – produces an output. You can ask it to write you a poem about cats and it will write you a poem about cats; if you ask it to write you a poem about cats in the style of Shakespeare, then, “O feline sprite, whose stealthy grace doth glide…” You can also ask it to translate documents, create a marketing campaign, create policy, strategy, code and apps for you, amongst virtually any other creative task you can think of.
In line with convention, I should say that this article wasn’t created by generative AI. My point however is that it could have been.
I doubt the article that ChatGPT would have created would have been as good as mine (though I suspect that is for the reader to judge), like I doubt that a marketing campaign or policy document created by this technology would be as good as one created by an informed human expert. However, the article or campaign or document would have been produced virtually instantly for a minute cost.
This is the first danger for business, the economy and society. Is there a point where generative AI produces content which is – whilst not as good as a human could – is good enough, for free? Many businesses will soon face a tough decision. Simply, is it worth paying for a good human output when there is a ‘good enough’ free option available? In many ways this choice is initially being played out in hiring practices.
Whilst this is a poor analogy, let’s say that in general, generative AI content is the equivalent of that of a new trainee in an organisation. Their output is ‘along the right lines’; there is the odd mistake and it lacks the nuance and insight of a senior professional. If this is the case, either now or – with the progression of generative AI models – in the near future, then there is a short-term case to replace the first rung of employees in an organisation. Or more likely, a firm will slow recruitment.
This may already be happening: a recent US survey of hiring managers noted that 70% considered that AI could do the jobs of interns, 69% said AI can do the work of a recent college graduate and 78% said they planned to lay off or not recruit because of AI.
Taking a longer-term approach on AI
A firm’s talent is diverse and temporal. The simple fact is that generative AI may be able to do the work of an intern or trainee, but that work is supervised, corrected and approved by the more expert staff in an organisation. Today’s trainees are tomorrow’s senior staff. An organisation which reduces its intake will end up with less expertise throughout. Senior expertise may become more sought after, driving up overall costs. Ultimately, generative AI and human expertise will work in partnership, reducing the future expertise which can get the best out of the AI is a short-term win at best.
When we think about how we will incorporate generative artificial intelligence we must take a longer-term holistic perspective. Currently, making decisions about AI is very difficult; it is a new technology which is rapidly changing. Organisations will face a classic problem: the expense to get started will be an investment in the worst available AI. The next model will be a better one.
The decisions being made now about AI will echo into the longer-term; short-term wins may only be that. We can’t keep waiting to start with AI, but our choices must be considered and sustainable.
To find out more about the University of Salford’s Business School, visit: www.salford.ac.uk/salford-business-school.